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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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