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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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