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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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