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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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