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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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