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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
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