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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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