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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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