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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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