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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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