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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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