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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- The University of Queensland
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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