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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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