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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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