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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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