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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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