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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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