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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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