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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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