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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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