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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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