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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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