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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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