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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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