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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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