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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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