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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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