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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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