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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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