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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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