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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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