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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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