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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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