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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
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Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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