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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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