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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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