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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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