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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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