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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 25 December 19
EXHAUST GAS CLEANING SYSTEMS (SCRUBBER) GUIDANCE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a few weeks, IMO’s ‘global sulphur cap’ will take effect. The permitted levels of SOx in ship emissi ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
INDONESIAN BUKIT ASAM TARGETS TO MINE 30 MLN T OF COAL IN 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesian state-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam targets to produce around 30 million tonnes of coal in 2020, compared with an estimate of 28.5 mill ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year in the shipping industry is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the dry bulk and tanker markets and how these performed ...
Monday, 23 December 19
VLSFO PRICING & AVAILABILITY NEEDS CAREFUL WATCHING - INTEGR8 FUELS
As we approach January 1st 2020 , the VLSFO price premium to HSFO has widened considerably
We are clearly well into the IMO 2020 transition; ch ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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