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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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