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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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