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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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