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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
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