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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
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