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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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