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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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