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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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