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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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