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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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