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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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