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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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