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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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