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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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