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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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