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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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