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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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