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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA RESUMES OVER 70 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 70.2 percent of its coal production capacity with output recovering steadily amid the fight against the novel coronavirus epidemi ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA THERMAL COAL MARKET FACES 2-3 MONTH CORONAVIRUS SHORT SQUEEZE: NOBLE - REUTERS
China’s domestic thermal coal market faces a 2-3 month short squeeze as a rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak curtails production more tha ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR Q2- Q4 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, (KOMIPO). has issued an international tender for total 1 million MT of coal for April to December 2020 l ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
GLENCORE WRITES OFF ALMOST $1 BILLION AT COLOMBIAN COAL MINES DUE TO FALLING EUROPEAN IMPORTS: BLOOMBERG
The economic case against European coal is proving too much for even Glencore Plc.
The world’s biggest coal shipper cut the va ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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