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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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