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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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