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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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