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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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