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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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