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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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