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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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